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The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.
But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.
“They lose quicker, dry up quicker, recruitment or re-recruitment,” he says. “If the recruitment of players dries up, then what are you going to do? Definitely there can be components like that.”
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“He would play and play, drink and drink, and if he didn’t lose all his money at the Palm Beach, he would then get in a car and go around the corner to the Colony Club,” the source told the newspaper.
The Telegraph noted that it does not claim any funds allegedly misappropriated from MFS were used to finance Raja’s gambling.
Company creditors have alleged a shortfall of more than £1.3 billion ($1.7 billion), while administrators have accused Raja of orchestrating a scheme through which funds were systematically extracted from MFS and related entities.
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For the AiA, however, the longer-term ambition for Africa Safer Gambling Week extends beyond reducing the size of the offshore market.
Kesitilwe says the AiA also wants to develop a clearer picture of problem gambling across Africa and use that evidence to support engagement with governments and policymakers.
“We also, from the point of view of the Alliance, intend to do Africa-wide studies around prevalence of problem gambling in different markets, obviously working with regulators and associations,” he says.